Causation vs. Effectuation
Sarasvathy's two logics, side by side. Causal logic designs the stage and rules; effectual logic grows the improvised play on top.
Causation Designed Set goal, then pick means | Effectuation Emerged Start from means, embrace surprise | |
|---|---|---|
| Starting point | A fixed goal: build a long-term walking habit | Means at hand: existing platform + open tools |
| Audience | Rational STP segment (people Pokémon GO over-served) | Community pulls itself in; word-of-mouth snowball |
| Product | No FOMO / no death / idle-able (reverse-engineered from goal) | Postcards played into an 'ugly' meme & life-album |
| Marketing | Predictable monthly Community Day; global goals | 'Qing-dynasty Pikmin' & other spontaneous memes |
| View of control | Predict and control the environment | Accept uncertainty, exploit contingency, co-create |
| In one line | "Decide where to go, then build a car." | "Who rode along and what they sang happened on the road." |